* GneitingT_MWR_2005 [#x737946e]
Gneiting, T., A.E. Raftery, A.H. Westveld III, and T. Goldman, Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble model output statistics and Minimum CRPS Estimation, Mon. Wea. Rev, 133, 1098-1118, 2005..

- Category: MOS
- Tool(s): Others
- Summary: E(ensemble)MOSを用いた、MOS精度の向上。  
- Read Date: 2006-08-01

** Messages [#y8e4e578]
5種類の境界条件でMM5を走らせ、Ensemble MOSを計算。その際、重回帰の係数が負になることを抑えたEMOS+も使用した。海面気圧と表面気温をCRPS(Continuous Ranked Probability Score)やMAE,RMSEで評価。

Ensembleすることにより、さらにEMOS+することによりScoreがあがるらしい。

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