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* LandmanWA_GRL_2005 [#d488b0dc]
Landman, W.A. and L. Goddard, Predicting southern African summer rainfall using a combination of MOS and perfect prognosis, GRL, 32, L15809, doi:10.1029/2005GL022910, 2005.

- Category: MOS
- Tool(s): GCM
- Summary: 変則MOS。ECHAM出力2パタン（SimulationとHindcast）用意し、アフリカでMOSを評価。
- Read Date: 2007-06-15
** Messages [#g2871098]
アフリカ南部で、約50年分のAGCM（ECHAM）シミュレーション（解析SSTをForceしたランのことらしい）と観測値からMOSの係数を計算し、27年分のDFJ3ヶ月予報（NovのSST）に適用した。Model（Simulation mode）－観測の関係をそのままForecast mode－観測の関係に当てはめることから、MOSでありつつもPerfect Progの手法に似ている、ってことでMOS-PPと名づけられた模様。

雨のSkill（相関とranked probability skill score(RPSS)）を見ているのだが、良いのか悪いのか良くわからない。（生のModel出力よりは良いのだろうが。）



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