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* StephensonDB_Tellus_2005 [#x8a197bd]
Stephenson, D.B., C.A.S. Coelho, F.J. Doblas-reyes, and M. Balmaseda, Forecast assimilation: a unified framework for the combination of multi-model weather and climate prediction, Tellus, 57A, 253-264, 2005.

- Category: Assimilation
- Tool(s): GCM
- Summary: 7つの結合モデルのhindcastを使ってMOS的な処理を施し、過去20年の海面水温を比較したら良くなった。
- Read Date: 2007-06-15

** Messages [#i1bd2735]
難解。Forecast Assimilationという、そもそも理解不能な概念が出てくる。その導入にはベイズ理論が出てくるっちゅうことでお手上げ。

ただやっていることは、7つの結合モデルのhindcastを使ってMOS的な処理を施し、過去20年の海面水温を比較する、というもの。すでにそれぞれのモデルの再現性がとても良い(MPIのだけタコ)のでMOSの効果はあまりないのだが、良くなっているらしい。つまり、過去数十年の練習期間をもとに未来のモデルランに対してこの手法を適用すれば予測精度があがる、というわけだ。

今再解析で行われているような6時間ごとのAssimilationとは違うんだと思う。



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