*AGU 2006 Fall meeting (2006/12/11-15) [#l7358cec]
#contents
**AGU初日 [#wa31cdc9]
【思ったこと】
***【メモ:強く思ったこと】 [#n9bb19f4]
 やはり、同位体はしっかりやらなければいかん。 
 モデルグループはきちんと(?)みてる。
【メモ】
***【メモ:やるべきこと】 [#p0017f4e]
 Regional Model
 Ocean Model
 Diagnosed 18O subroutine? (Vertical Integration) 
 川論文->高緯度バイアスをどうするか。CNIP(Gibson)とも比較?
 川からの蒸発。Wetland, Lakeの取り扱い。
 カップル論文->偏差、観測との比較。
 River networkをどうするか。0.5deg?
 パタゴニアデータ。
 CNIP, USNIP
 藤田さんの南極
 植村君の船
 シェル?
 色々と比較するべき。

***Morning 1 B11E [#g2b2f2b3]
 8:00 Introduction. J. West, G.Bowen. He is Very young!!
 8:00 G. Schmidt.
 Coupled model results. Sea surface water del18O is quite 
 nice to see the model performance than precip del18O or 
 d-excess.
 Mode: air temp, precip amount, del18O, d-excess
 2xCO2: Arctic signal-Air Temp-> Stays same
 Precip over land: 期間によってP-δP関係が変わる。→困った!
 →結局、使えない、という結論か?

 8:20 David Noone: 130y-trends
 Regarding climate change, precipitation change is not big as vapor and temprature.
 -> What about isotepes?
 SWING: more models welcome!
 Model trends:
  Africa, N.NA, Indian Ocean, Atlantic: Depletes
 Europe: Enriches
 Regression with SOI. Center in the middle of Pacific,
 Trend をP/E/Aの増減で分析。
 
 時間の都合上か、「実際」の状況が出てこなかったが、どうなのだろうか。

 8:35 J.E. Lee(UCB)
 NCAR CAM2-iso model results. (Ocean? Land?)
 前の二人に比べるとマダマダか。

 8:50 D. Yakir 
 10-yr vapor isotopes:
 Model-Obs differs!
 Observation based and local 

 9:15 L.Sternberg
 セルロースとStem Water δ18Oは相関。
 セルロースδ13CとstemWaterはアウト。
 回帰直線の係数とモデルが良く一致。おどろき。
 地理的にはQuite Fitted。時系列はどうなるか?→Next step

 9:30 JW White:δ13CH4 1700-2000.

 9:50 B. Alexander (UW): Suflate Delta17O
 Fire index vs sulfate (nitrate) Delta17O.
 GEOS-Chem global 3D chemical transport model (CTM)

 [Break]
 John Gibson, Davidと会話。Assimilationをやっている人を紹介。

***Morning 2 B12 [#h1271fa0]
 10:20 Hasting: Delta17O in Nitrate
 
 DeltaNO2=alpha x DeltaO3
 Model is bad in North Pole and South pole. 
 But, delta17O in NO3 itself is amazing 

 H12
 10:40 Y Yi: Lake
 deltaE is important. Huum...

 B12 
 11:05 C. Kendall
 here, lots of data! -> I should use them.
 Horizontal distribution, 
 Down-Upstream profile
 Seasonal variation.

 11:20 JJ Gibson: Lake
 Site specific hydrologic control for aquatic on a lake-by-lake basis.
 Demonstrates that hydrologic variability can be a major influence on aquatic cyctem sensitivity.
 
 Higher risk of acidification in water bodies disconnected from regional runoff theses are isotopically detectable.

*** Afternoon 1 [#o073e177]
 13:00- Poster
 JPL John (Aura HDO)
 Gab Bowen
 Sodemann
 David CIRESに行くのもあり。

 ワインの同位体、水道水

**AGU二日目 [#x406b260]
*** Morning 1 [#cbc9b8b8]
 A21H
 9:15 AJ Heymsfield: Hurricane microphysics, Review

 B21
 9:40 Delta47 and Delta14C

*** Afternoon 1 [#v66ab0b8]
 H23F
 13:40: WM Alley (USGS): 
 MODFLOWを使って。National Survey

 14:00 M. Taniguchi
 See-page meter observation.
 Submarine GW Discharge. (Fresh and Recirculated.)
 Fresh <- Precipitation/Distance from shore
 Recyc <- See tide.
 SFGD (Fresh water) : 6-10% of river dischasrge
 SRDB: 300 % of river discharge. (NOT 30%!)
 
 UNESCO GRAPHIC
 -Recharge
 Nakaegawa et al 2006: Comparison of GRACE and JRA/ERA/NCEP 
 -> Time lag.
 
 Q&A
 Urbanization -> Reduction of recharge. Why?
 Representation?

 14:20 T. Oki
 Comment: There is a known mistake, i.e. small evapotranspiration in dry season in Amazon. 

 14:40 Pat Yeh: Remote sensing of GWS in Illinois with GRACE
 Month to month comparison goes not-good.

 15:00 Y. Fan: Continental hydrology; RAMS-Hydro model. 
 Must see posters by Gonzal Miguez-Macho, Richard Anyah
 1. Equilibrium water table estimation <- Topmodel's f is used.
  -> US distribution of water table depth. Res: 10km.
 2. Link GW with River network
 3. Link Water table depth to RAMS' LSM
 Comment: この手の仕事はいまある観測の欠落を埋めるのだろうか?
 →ターンオーバーのながい地下水を観測するのは大変。モデルだとそれが補える。

 15:20 LP van Beek: Baseflow calibration in a global model.
 Compare with ERA40's recharge? -> Does it make sense??

**AGU三日目 [#sa56d16e]
***Morning [#tbb60949]
 Moved to Comfort Inn by the Bay
 ランチにJapan Centerの「札幌屋」でラーメン。メチャウマではないけど、満足した。量が多い。

***Afternoon 1 [#hd92c81b]
 PP33B Global Monsoon Change
 13:40 Z. Liu: Abrupt change of vegetation and precipitation in N. Africa.
 Annual stochastic forcing cannot make abrupt change (As the matter of fact!!)
 Decadal forcing does.

 H33F CEOP
 14:00 K. Yang: ECPC/NCEP with CEOP data
 ECPC's sensible heat is strange

 14:20 T. Koike: Introduction of CEOP framework
 SWING is counted. Huum.

 14:40 K. Hsu: HRPP vs CEOP gauges

 15:00 E.A. Herland (ESA): TRAQ(Air quality), PREMIER,  A-SCOPE, CoReH20(Snow)
 Air quality (NO2, O3, CO, SO2, HCHO, CH4)

 15:15 F.Su: TRMM in La Plata.

 15:30 K. Yang: Diurnal variation in P
 Less rain in 18LT. <- Strat/Convec rainfall dominancy change??

**AGU四日目 [#j64b0016]
***【メモ:GISS-Eに勝つには。】 [#rf7aba73]
 海、高層そこそこ、陸
 50yr→気候再現OK 
 これの相関
 
 ICMのメリット:気候再現がOK(再解析依存)。
 でもシンプル。鉛直積分でOK。ポスト
 大気流入による変化がキレイに出る。(日日変動)
 →再現性を深く追求し、ソースの動きも捉えると良いか。

*** Morning 1 [#j37a0d94]
 U41E
 9:15 NM Kehrwald (Schmidt): GISS-E and Tibetan Ice core
 Self congraturation. SAT and SST are correlated to the ice core.
 50-150years run.

 9:30 DP Schneider (Colorado): Antarctica temperature recreation.
 200 years. SAM expains significantly.
 Compare with in-situ data??

 9:45 D.Urmann, Tropical cyclone
 El Nino: More typhoon
 PJ Webster, Science 2006.
 Johnny Chan, Science 2006.
 Quelccaya 18O and NINO4 are very significantly correlated. and Trend.
 Number of thphoon days and SST in NINO4.