AGU 2006 Fall meeting (2006/12/11-15)

AGU初日

【メモ:強く思ったこと】

やはり、同位体はしっかりやらなければいかん。 
モデルグループはきちんと(?)みてる。

【メモ:やるべきこと】

Regional Model
Ocean Model
Diagnosed 18O subroutine? (Vertical Integration) 
川論文->高緯度バイアスをどうするか。CNIP(Gibson)とも比較?
川からの蒸発。Wetland, Lakeの取り扱い。
カップル論文->偏差、観測との比較。
River networkをどうするか。0.5deg?
パタゴニアデータ。
CNIP, USNIP
藤田さんの南極
植村君の船
シェル?
色々と比較するべき。

Morning 1 B11E

8:00 Introduction. J. West, G.Bowen. He is Very young!!
8:00 G. Schmidt.
Coupled model results. Sea surface water del18O is quite 
nice to see the model performance than precip del18O or 
d-excess.
Mode: air temp, precip amount, del18O, d-excess
2xCO2: Arctic signal-Air Temp-> Stays same
Precip over land: 期間によってP-δP関係が変わる。→困った!
→結局、使えない、という結論か?
8:20 David Noone: 130y-trends
Regarding climate change, precipitation change is not big as vapor and temprature.
-> What about isotepes?
SWING: more models welcome!
Model trends:
 Africa, N.NA, Indian Ocean, Atlantic: Depletes
Europe: Enriches
Regression with SOI. Center in the middle of Pacific,
Trend をP/E/Aの増減で分析。

時間の都合上か、「実際」の状況が出てこなかったが、どうなのだろうか。
8:35 J.E. Lee(UCB)
NCAR CAM2-iso model results. (Ocean? Land?)
前の二人に比べるとマダマダか。
8:50 D. Yakir 
10-yr vapor isotopes:
Model-Obs differs!
Observation based and local 
9:15 L.Sternberg
セルロースとStem Water δ18Oは相関。
セルロースδ13CとstemWaterはアウト。
回帰直線の係数とモデルが良く一致。おどろき。
地理的にはQuite Fitted。時系列はどうなるか?→Next step
9:30 JW White:δ13CH4 1700-2000.
9:50 B. Alexander (UW): Suflate Delta17O
Fire index vs sulfate (nitrate) Delta17O.
GEOS-Chem global 3D chemical transport model (CTM)
[Break]
John Gibson, Davidと会話。Assimilationをやっている人を紹介。

Morning 2 B12

10:20 Hasting: Delta17O in Nitrate

DeltaNO2=alpha x DeltaO3
Model is bad in North Pole and South pole. 
But, delta17O in NO3 itself is amazing 
H12
10:40 Y Yi: Lake
deltaE is important. Huum...
B12 
11:05 C. Kendall
here, lots of data! -> I should use them.
Horizontal distribution, 
Down-Upstream profile
Seasonal variation.
11:20 JJ Gibson: Lake
Site specific hydrologic control for aquatic on a lake-by-lake basis.
Demonstrates that hydrologic variability can be a major influence on aquatic cyctem sensitivity.

Higher risk of acidification in water bodies disconnected from regional runoff theses are isotopically detectable.

Afternoon 1

13:00- Poster
JPL John (Aura HDO)
Gab Bowen
Sodemann
David CIRESに行くのもあり。
ワインの同位体、水道水

AGU二日目

Morning 1

A21H
9:15 AJ Heymsfield: Hurricane microphysics, Review
B21
9:40 Delta47 and Delta14C

Afternoon 1

H23F
13:40: WM Alley (USGS): 
MODFLOWを使って。National Survey
14:00 M. Taniguchi
See-page meter observation.
Submarine GW Discharge. (Fresh and Recirculated.)
Fresh <- Precipitation/Distance from shore
Recyc <- See tide.
SFGD (Fresh water) : 6-10% of river dischasrge
SRDB: 300 % of river discharge. (NOT 30%!)

UNESCO GRAPHIC
-Recharge
Nakaegawa et al 2006: Comparison of GRACE and JRA/ERA/NCEP 
-> Time lag.

Q&A
Urbanization -> Reduction of recharge. Why?
Representation?
14:20 T. Oki
Comment: There is a known mistake, i.e. small evapotranspiration in dry season in Amazon. 
14:40 Pat Yeh: Remote sensing of GWS in Illinois with GRACE
Month to month comparison goes not-good.
15:00 Y. Fan: Continental hydrology; RAMS-Hydro model. 
Must see posters by Gonzal Miguez-Macho, Richard Anyah
1. Equilibrium water table estimation <- Topmodel's f is used.
 -> US distribution of water table depth. Res: 10km.
2. Link GW with River network
3. Link Water table depth to RAMS' LSM
Comment: この手の仕事はいまある観測の欠落を埋めるのだろうか?
→ターンオーバーのながい地下水を観測するのは大変。モデルだとそれが補える。
15:20 LP van Beek: Baseflow calibration in a global model.
Compare with ERA40's recharge? -> Does it make sense??

AGU三日目

Morning

Moved to Comfort Inn by the Bay
ランチにJapan Centerの「札幌屋」でラーメン。メチャウマではないけど、満足した。量が多い。

Afternoon 1

PP33B Global Monsoon Change
13:40 Z. Liu: Abrupt change of vegetation and precipitation in N. Africa.
Annual stochastic forcing cannot make abrupt change (As the matter of fact!!)
Decadal forcing does.
H33F CEOP
14:00 K. Yang: ECPC/NCEP with CEOP data
ECPC's sensible heat is strange
14:20 T. Koike: Introduction of CEOP framework
SWING is counted. Huum.
14:40 K. Hsu: HRPP vs CEOP gauges
15:00 E.A. Herland (ESA): TRAQ(Air quality), PREMIER,  A-SCOPE, CoReH20(Snow)
Air quality (NO2, O3, CO, SO2, HCHO, CH4)
15:15 F.Su: TRMM in La Plata.
15:30 K. Yang: Diurnal variation in P
Less rain in 18LT. <- Strat/Convec rainfall dominancy change??

AGU四日目

【メモ:GISS-Eに勝つには。】

海、高層そこそこ、陸
50yr→気候再現OK 
これの相関

ICMのメリット:気候再現がOK(再解析依存)。
でもシンプル。鉛直積分でOK。ポスト
大気流入による変化がキレイに出る。(日日変動)
→再現性を深く追求し、ソースの動きも捉えると良いか。

Morning 1

U41E
9:15 NM Kehrwald (Schmidt): GISS-E and Tibetan Ice core
Self congraturation. SAT and SST are correlated to the ice core.
50-150years run.
9:30 DP Schneider (Colorado): Antarctica temperature recreation.
200 years. SAM expains significantly.
Compare with in-situ data??
9:45 D.Urmann, Tropical cyclone
El Nino: More typhoon
PJ Webster, Science 2006.
Johnny Chan, Science 2006.
Quelccaya 18O and NINO4 are very significantly correlated. and Trend.
Number of thphoon days and SST in NINO4.