*AGU 2006 Fall meeting (2006/12/11-15) [#l7358cec] #contents **AGU初日 [#wa31cdc9] 【思ったこと】 ***【メモ:強く思ったこと】 [#n9bb19f4] やはり、同位体はしっかりやらなければいかん。 モデルグループはきちんと(?)みてる。 【メモ】 ***【メモ:やるべきこと】 [#p0017f4e] Regional Model Ocean Model Diagnosed 18O subroutine? (Vertical Integration) 川論文->高緯度バイアスをどうするか。CNIP(Gibson)とも比較? 川からの蒸発。Wetland, Lakeの取り扱い。 カップル論文->偏差、観測との比較。 River networkをどうするか。0.5deg? パタゴニアデータ。 CNIP, USNIP 藤田さんの南極 植村君の船 シェル? 色々と比較するべき。 ***Morning 1 B11E [#g2b2f2b3] 8:00 Introduction. J. West, G.Bowen. He is Very young!! 8:00 G. Schmidt. Coupled model results. Sea surface water del18O is quite nice to see the model performance than precip del18O or d-excess. Mode: air temp, precip amount, del18O, d-excess 2xCO2: Arctic signal-Air Temp-> Stays same Precip over land: 期間によってP-δP関係が変わる。→困った! →結局、使えない、という結論か? 8:20 David Noone: 130y-trends Regarding climate change, precipitation change is not big as vapor and temprature. -> What about isotepes? SWING: more models welcome! Model trends: Africa, N.NA, Indian Ocean, Atlantic: Depletes Europe: Enriches Regression with SOI. Center in the middle of Pacific, Trend をP/E/Aの増減で分析。 時間の都合上か、「実際」の状況が出てこなかったが、どうなのだろうか。 8:35 J.E. Lee(UCB) NCAR CAM2-iso model results. (Ocean? Land?) 前の二人に比べるとマダマダか。 8:50 D. Yakir 10-yr vapor isotopes: Model-Obs differs! Observation based and local 9:15 L.Sternberg セルロースとStem Water δ18Oは相関。 セルロースδ13CとstemWaterはアウト。 回帰直線の係数とモデルが良く一致。おどろき。 地理的にはQuite Fitted。時系列はどうなるか?→Next step 9:30 JW White:δ13CH4 1700-2000. 9:50 B. Alexander (UW): Suflate Delta17O Fire index vs sulfate (nitrate) Delta17O. GEOS-Chem global 3D chemical transport model (CTM) [Break] John Gibson, Davidと会話。Assimilationをやっている人を紹介。 ***Morning 2 B12 [#h1271fa0] 10:20 Hasting: Delta17O in Nitrate DeltaNO2=alpha x DeltaO3 Model is bad in North Pole and South pole. But, delta17O in NO3 itself is amazing H12 10:40 Y Yi: Lake deltaE is important. Huum... B12 11:05 C. Kendall here, lots of data! -> I should use them. Horizontal distribution, Down-Upstream profile Seasonal variation. 11:20 JJ Gibson: Lake Site specific hydrologic control for aquatic on a lake-by-lake basis. Demonstrates that hydrologic variability can be a major influence on aquatic cyctem sensitivity. Higher risk of acidification in water bodies disconnected from regional runoff theses are isotopically detectable. *** Afternoon 1 [#o073e177] 13:00- Poster JPL John (Aura HDO) Gab Bowen Sodemann David CIRESに行くのもあり。 ワインの同位体、水道水 **AGU二日目 [#x406b260] *** Morning 1 [#cbc9b8b8] A21H 9:15 AJ Heymsfield: Hurricane microphysics, Review B21 9:40 Delta47 and Delta14C *** Afternoon 1 [#v66ab0b8] H23F 13:40: WM Alley (USGS): MODFLOWを使って。National Survey 14:00 M. Taniguchi See-page meter observation. Submarine GW Discharge. (Fresh and Recirculated.) Fresh <- Precipitation/Distance from shore Recyc <- See tide. SFGD (Fresh water) : 6-10% of river dischasrge SRDB: 300 % of river discharge. (NOT 30%!) UNESCO GRAPHIC -Recharge Nakaegawa et al 2006: Comparison of GRACE and JRA/ERA/NCEP -> Time lag. Q&A Urbanization -> Reduction of recharge. Why? Representation? 14:20 T. Oki Comment: There is a known mistake, i.e. small evapotranspiration in dry season in Amazon. 14:40 Pat Yeh: Remote sensing of GWS in Illinois with GRACE Month to month comparison goes not-good. 15:00 Y. Fan: Continental hydrology; RAMS-Hydro model. Must see posters by Gonzal Miguez-Macho, Richard Anyah 1. Equilibrium water table estimation <- Topmodel's f is used. -> US distribution of water table depth. Res: 10km. 2. Link GW with River network 3. Link Water table depth to RAMS' LSM Comment: この手の仕事はいまある観測の欠落を埋めるのだろうか? →ターンオーバーのながい地下水を観測するのは大変。モデルだとそれが補える。 15:20 LP van Beek: Baseflow calibration in a global model. Compare with ERA40's recharge? -> Does it make sense?? **AGU三日目 [#sa56d16e] ***Morning [#tbb60949] Moved to Comfort Inn by the Bay ランチにJapan Centerの「札幌屋」でラーメン。メチャウマではないけど、満足した。量が多い。 ***Afternoon 1 [#hd92c81b] PP33B Global Monsoon Change 13:40 Z. Liu: Abrupt change of vegetation and precipitation in N. Africa. Annual stochastic forcing cannot make abrupt change (As the matter of fact!!) Decadal forcing does. H33F CEOP 14:00 K. Yang: ECPC/NCEP with CEOP data ECPC's sensible heat is strange 14:20 T. Koike: Introduction of CEOP framework SWING is counted. Huum. 14:40 K. Hsu: HRPP vs CEOP gauges 15:00 E.A. Herland (ESA): TRAQ(Air quality), PREMIER, A-SCOPE, CoReH20(Snow) Air quality (NO2, O3, CO, SO2, HCHO, CH4) 15:15 F.Su: TRMM in La Plata. 15:30 K. Yang: Diurnal variation in P Less rain in 18LT. <- Strat/Convec rainfall dominancy change?? **AGU四日目 [#j64b0016] ***【メモ:GISS-Eに勝つには。】 [#rf7aba73] 海、高層そこそこ、陸 50yr→気候再現OK これの相関 ICMのメリット:気候再現がOK(再解析依存)。 でもシンプル。鉛直積分でOK。ポスト 大気流入による変化がキレイに出る。(日日変動) →再現性を深く追求し、ソースの動きも捉えると良いか。 *** Morning 1 [#j37a0d94] U41E 9:15 NM Kehrwald (Schmidt): GISS-E and Tibetan Ice core Self congraturation. SAT and SST are correlated to the ice core. 50-150years run. 9:30 DP Schneider (Colorado): Antarctica temperature recreation. 200 years. SAM expains significantly. Compare with in-situ data?? 9:45 D.Urmann, Tropical cyclone El Nino: More typhoon PJ Webster, Science 2006. Johnny Chan, Science 2006. Quelccaya 18O and NINO4 are very significantly correlated. and Trend. Number of thphoon days and SST in NINO4.